JEWISH WORLD

JEWISH WORLD • APRIL 24-30, 2020 5 By DANIEL PIPES I s there a silver lining to the dis- ruption caused by the COVID- 19 virus? Observers note a vari- ety of possible gains, from long- term lower oil prices to improved air quality, from weakened extrem- ist movements to a loosening of unneeded regulations. But these possible benefits pale next to the truly big one: shaking Americans out of their complacency and open- ing their minds to the potential of catastrophe. A worldwide virus that has changed nearly everyone's routine and disrupted the economy pro- vides a shocking reminder about the fragility of supply chains, the vul- nerability of public health, and the precariousness of democracy. This unsettling experience will have pos- itive consequences if it opens smug minds to the possibility of upheaval. Two existing threats stand out as most likely: electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and the demise of Western civilization. EMP could spell instantaneous disaster by frying electronics, leav- ing modern economies paralyzed. As Peter Pry, the former Congressional EMP Commission chief of staff, explains, "If you think the coronavirus is frightening, wait until a solar superstorm or electro- magnetic pulse attack blacks-out the national electric grid, collapses the economy and critical infrastruc- tures for food and water, and 9-out- of-10 Americans die of starvation." Note that figure: 90 percent dead. Two solar superstorms occurred in modern times, 1859 and 1921; a third just missed the Earth in 2012. Jonathan O'Callaghan writes in Scientific American that another superstorm "is an inevitability in the near future." What about an attack? The Congressional EMP Commission found that any of the governments of China, North Korea, Russia, and maybe Iran could carry out an EMP attack on the United States with even a small number of nuclear weapons. This would "cause wide- spread, long-lasting damage to U.S. critical national infrastructures, to the United States itself as a viable country, and to the survival of a majority of its population." A mere month ago, most Americans dismissed such an exis- tential threat. Shaken by a medieval-style virus, are we now ready to take it seriously and spend the money — about $1 trillion — to insulate against both solar and enemy actions? A s for Western civilization, it came into existence, Jeffrey Hart of Dartmouth explains, out of "the creative tension between Athens and Jerusalem." It then evolved over two millennia into the world's dominant force, affecting nearly every people in nearly every aspect of life. Modernity, sociolo- gist Rodney Stark argues, is " entire- ly the product of Western civiliza- tion." Its upward trajectory seemed secure until the outbreak of World War I in 1914, the tragedy that start- ed a rash of wars, revolutions, and ideological furies which brought continued on page 23 High Alert U.S. shaken out of complacency by COVID-19? Perhaps Americans are now receptive to the possibility of even greater out-of-the-box dangers. Western Europe's largest mosque, the DITIB-Zentralmoschee in Cologne. PERSPECTIVE